Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Baldwin, MI
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by September 10.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around September 20
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by September 29
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 28 | Nov 3 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 | Dec 4 |
First 20° | Oct 18 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 18 |
First 24° | Oct 10 | Oct 15 | Oct 18 | Oct 22 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 3 | Nov 8 |
First 28° | Sep 21 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 15 | Oct 20 |
First 32° | Sep 5 | Sep 10 | Sep 14 | Sep 17 | Sep 20 | Sep 23 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 4 |
First 36° | Aug 17 | Aug 24 | Aug 28 | Sep 2 | Sep 5 | Sep 9 | Sep 13 | Sep 18 | Sep 25 |
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by July 3. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on May 27, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by June 11 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 23 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 27 |
Last 20° | May 5 | Apr 29 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 | Apr 2 |
Last 24° | May 14 | May 8 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 14 |
Last 28° | May 30 | May 23 | May 17 | May 13 | May 9 | May 5 | Apr 30 | Apr 25 | Apr 18 |
Last 32° | Jun 14 | Jun 7 | Jun 3 | May 30 | May 27 | May 23 | May 19 | May 15 | May 8 |
Last 36° | Jul 3 | Jun 25 | Jun 20 | Jun 15 | Jun 11 | Jun 6 | Jun 2 | May 27 | May 20 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.