Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Apalachicola , FL
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by March 28. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on February 18, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by March 5 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 16° | Dec 27 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 20° | Jan 16 | Jan 3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 24° | Feb 1 | Jan 19 | Jan 7 | Dec 19 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Last 28° | Feb 23 | Feb 14 | Feb 8 | Feb 2 | Jan 27 | Jan 21 | Jan 12 | -- | -- |
| Last 32° | Mar 12 | Mar 2 | Feb 23 | Feb 17 | Feb 11 | Feb 6 | Jan 30 | Jan 23 | Jan 13 |
| Last 36° | Mar 28 | Mar 20 | Mar 14 | Mar 10 | Mar 5 | Feb 28 | Feb 23 | Feb 18 | Feb 10 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by November 26.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around December 15
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by January 3
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
| Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 16° | Jan 17 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 20° | Dec 30 | Jan 11 | Jan 26 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 24° | Dec 20 | Jan 3 | Jan 15 | Jan 31 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| First 28° | Dec 5 | Dec 16 | Dec 25 | Jan 1 | Jan 9 | Jan 17 | Jan 28 | -- | -- |
| First 32° | Nov 17 | Nov 26 | Dec 3 | Dec 9 | Dec 15 | Dec 21 | Dec 27 | Jan 3 | Jan 12 |
| First 36° | Nov 6 | Nov 14 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 14 | Dec 21 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.