Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Annapolis Police Brks, MD
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 3. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 10, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by April 19 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 9 | Mar 2 | Feb 25 | Feb 21 | Feb 17 | Feb 13 | Feb 9 | Feb 3 | Jan 26 |
Last 20° | Mar 22 | Mar 14 | Mar 8 | Mar 3 | Feb 27 | Feb 22 | Feb 17 | Feb 11 | Feb 3 |
Last 24° | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 20 | Mar 17 | Mar 15 | Mar 12 | Mar 10 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 |
Last 28° | Apr 12 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 23 | Mar 20 | Mar 15 |
Last 32° | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 6 | Apr 4 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 |
Last 36° | May 3 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 5 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 19.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 31
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 11
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Dec 3 | Dec 12 | Dec 18 | Dec 23 | Dec 28 | Jan 2 | Jan 7 | Jan 14 | Jan 24 |
First 20° | Nov 26 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 10 | Dec 14 | Dec 17 | Dec 21 | Dec 25 | Jan 1 |
First 24° | Nov 9 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 23 | Nov 26 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 7 | Dec 13 |
First 28° | Oct 29 | Nov 3 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 29 |
First 32° | Oct 13 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 7 | Nov 11 | Nov 18 |
First 36° | Oct 7 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 30 | Nov 2 | Nov 8 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.