Frost Dates: First and last frost dates for Aberdeen Phillips Fld, MD
What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by May 7. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on April 14, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by April 23 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Mar 8 | Mar 2 | Feb 26 | Feb 22 | Feb 18 | Feb 15 | Feb 11 | Feb 6 | Jan 30 |
Last 20° | Mar 22 | Mar 15 | Mar 10 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 | Feb 26 | Feb 22 | Feb 17 | Feb 10 |
Last 24° | Mar 31 | Mar 25 | Mar 22 | Mar 18 | Mar 15 | Mar 12 | Mar 9 | Mar 5 | Feb 28 |
Last 28° | Apr 13 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 28 | Mar 25 | Mar 21 | Mar 16 |
Last 32° | Apr 23 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 29 |
Last 36° | May 7 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 9 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
- You have a small 20% chance of getting 32° by October 19.
- There is a 50% chance of being hit by a 32° frost starting around October 28
- You have a 80% chance of seeing 32° by November 7
- Said another way, you have a 1 in 5 chance at making it to that day without a 32° night.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Dec 7 | Dec 13 | Dec 18 | Dec 21 | Dec 25 | Dec 29 | Jan 2 | Jan 6 | Jan 14 |
First 20° | Nov 18 | Nov 27 | Dec 3 | Dec 9 | Dec 14 | Dec 19 | Dec 25 | Jan 1 | Jan 10 |
First 24° | Nov 10 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 22 | Nov 25 | Nov 28 | Dec 1 | Dec 4 | Dec 9 |
First 28° | Oct 22 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 15 | Nov 19 | Nov 25 |
First 32° | Oct 13 | Oct 19 | Oct 22 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 13 |
First 36° | Oct 1 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.