What's a safe temperature for tender plants? When the nightly temperature falls, frost can form, even above 32°, because the air is colder high above the ground and the frost can form up there and then fall down onto your garden and do some damage, even if it's 36° on the ground. So many factors come into play, including wind, concrete, houses, trees and other structures, etc etc etc. Because of all this, you might want to consider 36° as "the danger zone".
In your average springtime, you have a 90% chance that there will be no 36° nights by July 8. In other words, you can pretty much count on being safe from frost by that day. But we want to get those tomatoes in the ground as soon as possible, right? We see that there's still an 80% chance of 36° on June 6, so we don't dare plant that early. We wait a few days and by June 19 we are at the 50/50 point. At this point, we are close and we can start watching the weather forecast. If the upcoming week's forecast doesn't show below 40°, then it's probably okay to risk planting out your plants.
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 16° | Apr 29 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 | Mar 28 |
Last 20° | May 9 | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 11 |
Last 24° | May 17 | May 12 | May 9 | May 6 | May 3 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 20 |
Last 28° | May 30 | May 25 | May 22 | May 19 | May 16 | May 14 | May 11 | May 7 | May 3 |
Last 32° | Jun 25 | Jun 18 | Jun 13 | Jun 9 | Jun 5 | Jun 1 | May 28 | May 23 | May 16 |
Last 36° | Jul 8 | Jul 1 | Jun 26 | Jun 22 | Jun 19 | Jun 15 | Jun 11 | Jun 6 | May 31 |
The charts on this page show the probabilities of receiving a certain temperature on a certain day. Some examples that might help:
Temperature | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 16° | Oct 5 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 6 |
First 20° | Sep 19 | Sep 26 | Sep 30 | Oct 4 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 19 | Oct 25 |
First 24° | Sep 14 | Sep 19 | Sep 23 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 | Oct 17 |
First 28° | Sep 11 | Sep 14 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 21 | Sep 23 | Sep 25 | Sep 27 | Oct 1 |
First 32° | Aug 28 | Sep 2 | Sep 6 | Sep 9 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Sep 22 | Sep 27 |
First 36° | Aug 13 | Aug 19 | Aug 23 | Aug 27 | Aug 31 | Sep 3 | Sep 7 | Sep 12 | Sep 18 |
Data is provided by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.